/worked examples
Worked examples
01Profitable, but scored as a miss
A caller calls $WIF → $3.20 by Friday at 65% confidence, entry $3.00. It runs to $3.15 — never touching $3.20 at any point — and resolves there.
MONEY · +5.0% MOVE
$100 backed → +$5.00 gain. Platform $0.10 + caller $0.75. Backer nets $104.15.
REPUTATION · MISS
Target never touched → outcome = 0. Brier = (0.65)² = 0.4225 — a real penalty.
Money and reputation diverge on purpose. Loosening the score to match the money would let callers hedge vaguely and still rank well — the exact thing structured calls prevent.
02A losing call — where the loss goes
A caller calls $SOL → $240 at 58%, entry $214. It never touches $240 and resolves at $198 — a −7.48% move.
MONEY · −7.48% MOVE
$100 backed → $92.52. Fees charged: $0.00. The caller loses on their own stake too.
WHERE IT GOES
Nowhere but the market. No pool, no other user, no house is paid. It's the asset's real value declining.
03An event call — scored, not backable
A caller calls FOMC holds rates at 81% confidence. It holds — outcome = 1.
REPUTATION · VERIFIED
Brier = (0.81 − 1)² = 0.0361. Counts fully toward the Caliber Score.
MONEY · NONE
No liquid instrument to route capital into, so it carries no backing — by design.